Name: A prediction for the future of Iran
Uploaded: 2009-04-07T01:00:00Z
Duration: 18 min 45 s
Description: Bruce Bueno de Mesquita uses mathematical analysis to predict (very often correctly) such messy human events as war, political power shifts, Intifada ... After a crisp explanation of how he does it, he offers three predictions on the future of Iran.

Bruce Bueno de Mesquita uses mathematical analysis to predict (very often correctly) such messy human events as war, political power shifts, Intifada ... After a crisp explanation of how he does it, he offers three predictions on the future of Iran.

A prediction for the future of Iran

Mathematical models can predict the outcomes of complex political negotiations with surprising accuracy, sometimes even outpacing expert opinion. By analyzing what key players publicly want and how much influence and focus they hold, computer-driven game theory has anticipated major global shifts, including events in Iran. One CIA assessment showed this method correctly predicted results about 90 percent of the time when experts failed. This science-driven approach challenges the old belief that world affairs are too messy for systematic prediction.